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  • Mortgage Rates Jump Back Up Toward 7% October 5, 2022
    The mortgage rate world has been on a wild ride in general, and even more so in the past few weeks.  The crux of the drama was a British fiscal policy announcement that sent financial markets into a tailspin just after the September 21st Fed Announcement.  The initial reaction was a sharp increase in rates […]
  • Confirmation of What We Probably Already Knew October 5, 2022
    Confirmation of What We Probably Already Knew Bonds began the day in weaker territory after a slew of "not-too-terrible" economic data in Europe.  Additionally, from a technical perspective, bonds probably were getting back into territory consistent with de-escalating from the recent British drama.  As we continued to advise, this was never likely to be a […]
  • Bonds On The Back Foot Ahead of ISM Data October 5, 2022
    As feared, the recent rally in the bond market is quickly proving that it was fueled by a correction from panicked levels surrounding the UK drama in the last week of September rather than some new inspiration to begin a sustainable move lower in rate.  Yesterday's job openings data helped extend modest gains that may […]
  • Customer Retention, DPA, Paperless Products; Investor Disaster News; STRATMOR HELOC Survey October 5, 2022
    Yogi Berra, when asked about staying in a particular hotel, replied, “The towels were so thick there I could hardly close my suitcase.” I’ve attended my share of conferences in the last few months (no towels were purloined), and the two big general concerns for lenders everywhere are a) providing the best products, price, and […]
  • Application Volume Plunges to 25 Year Low October 5, 2022
    There were two storms brewing last week and each contributed to driving mortgage applications to generational lows. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said the continuing rise in interest rates and the devastating hurricane that hit Florida and the Carolina’s contributed to a double-digit decline in its indices that measure mortgage application volume. The Market Composite […]
  • Mortgage Rates Lowest in More Than a Week October 4, 2022
    We're measuring our mortgage rate spikes in terms of years and decades at the moment.  Progress in the other direction has been elusive--especially since the beginning of August.  Since then, mortgage rates haven't been able to string together any sort of winning streak lasting more than a few days.  On a slightly broader note, we […]
  • Bonds Might Have Lost Ground Today if Not For Big Data Surprise October 4, 2022
    Bonds Might Have Lost Ground Today if Not For Big Data Surprise Bonds ended up scratching out modest gains today, but that wasn't necessarily destined to be the case from the outset.  In fact, sellers took the upper hand between 930 and 10am before being driven off by the staggeringly big drop in job openings […]
  • Bonds Receive a JOLT of Support October 4, 2022
    Bonds got off to a decent start in the overnight session with help from a lower-than-expected rate hike from the RBA (Australia's central bank) and ongoing recovery in EU bond markets.  Gains were in question until the 10am release of the JOLTS data (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey).  Granted, gains still could be in […]
  • MLO Jobs; Automation, MSR Valuation Tools; STRATMOR Comp Data and Survey; Events and Training October 4, 2022
    Now we have a butter shortage raising prices ahead of the holidays. Great. While margarine makers are licking their chops over the news, vegans and other readers should know that no animals are ever harmed in the making of this commentary! But speaking of harm, in the current environment, and probably for the next couple […]
  • Construction Numbers Boosted by Residential Remodeling October 3, 2022
    Spending on residential construction, while down a bit in August and in spite of the gloom and doom about the housing market, continues to run significantly higher than in 2021. This is also true, although to a lesser extent, for construction spending as a whole. The U.S. Census Bureau put spending on all public and […]
Mortgage Rates Start Higher, But Improve in The Afternoon

Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates are only adjusted once per day by default. From there, the underlying bond market would need to improve or deteriorate by a certain amount for the average lender to go to the trouble of a mid-day reprice. A small handful of lenders did that last Friday (bonds were deteriorating), […]

August 23, 2021

Matthew Graham

MBS RECAP: Treasuries Slide Sideways as MBS Outperform

Posted To: MBS CommentaryTreasuries Slide Sideways as MBS Outperform The most notable development today was the outperformance on the part of MBS. The most obvious culprit would be the looming Treasury auction cycle logically causing more anxiety for Treasuries. There’s also the distinct steepening of the yield curve, which tends to favor MBS when it’s […]

August 23, 2021

Matthew Graham

Existing Home Sales Back on the Rise as Inventories Improve

Posted To: MND NewsWireExisting homes sales posted the second consecutive increase in July after breaking out of a slump in June that had endured for four months. The National Association of Realtors®, (NAR) said sales of pre-owned single-family houses, town houses, condominiums, and cooperative apartments rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.99 million […]

August 23, 2021

Jann Swanson

MBS Week Ahead: What is Jackson Hole (And What it Isn’t)

Posted To: MBS CommentaryThe Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium has often served as a venue for the Fed Chair to offer a sneak preview of impending policy changes or simply to provide a more candid assessment of how the Fed may react to potential changes in employment and inflation heading into the new year. While […]

August 23, 2021

Matthew Graham

Ops, MLO jobs; Whole Loan Sales, Jumbo, QC, Home Buying Education Products; Freddie and Fannie Changes

Posted To: Pipeline PressFires in California, floods in Tennessee, hurricanes in New York, COVID hospitalizations seemingly everywhere written up by the press. The “fun” never ends. Here in Orange County, at the California MBA’s Western Secondary, the talk in the hallways is focused not so much on huge shifts, because it looks like Freddie, Fannie, […]

August 23, 2021

Rob Chrisman

Rates Stuck in The Middle

Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchRates are on hold until the next chapter is written in the complex saga of covid versus the market. This isn’t to say rates perfectly flat–simply that the prevailing momentum has been sideways for the past few weeks. Since mortgage rates only change once or twice a day, we can use […]

August 20, 2021

Matthew Graham

MBS RECAP: Moderate Weakness For Uneventful Reasons

Posted To: MBS CommentaryModerate Weakness For Uneventful Reasons Bonds lost some ground today with 10yr yields up roughly 2bps heading into the 3pm CME close and 2.0 MBS down an eighth of a point. Viewed holistically, the week was very calm and yields ended right in the middle of the range (1.22-1.30% in the narrowest […]

August 20, 2021

Matthew Graham

Fannie Mae Says COVID-19 Surge Won’t Impact Growth. Probably.

Posted To: MND NewsWireFannie Mae’s economists provided a mixed forecast this month. The baseline view of the company’s Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) group is for the recent virus surge to drag modestly on consumers’ services consumption in the near term and modestly worsen supply chain disruptions abroad, but they don’t think it will prevent […]

August 20, 2021

Jann Swanson

Although Dwindling, Serious Delinquencies Still a Concern

Posted To: MND NewsWireThe federal foreclosure moratoria expired at the end of July and, with some 1.45 million borrowers seriously delinquent on their mortgages but not in foreclosure, Black Knight says, “potential foreclosure activity in the coming months warrants close observation.” The majority of those seriously delinquent mortgages, however, are still in active forbearance plans. […]

August 20, 2021

Jann Swanson

Sales Mgt., MLO Jobs; HELOC, Warehouse, Blockchain, Licensing Tools; News on Jumbo and Non-QM Products

Posted To: Pipeline PressWho wants to work on a Friday in summer? Not me! I was pleased to find the Type The Alphabet Game , which times you on how fast you type the alphabet. Fun, and doesn’t take much time. For something different, and some of you may need a tissue when reading it, […]

August 20, 2021

Rob Chrisman

MBS Day Ahead: Random Volatility Risks As Traders Tune Out

Posted To: MBS CommentaryIt’s a good time to revisit the primer on illiquidity unless the term is 2nd nature for you ( here it is ). Illiquidity is definitely a factor today as traders have undoubtedly targeted it as a perfect candidate for a 3-5 day weekend due to the absence of any relevant events […]

August 20, 2021

Matthew Graham

Fannie’s New Rental History Credit Boost Not as Simple as it Sound

Posted To: MND NewsWireIt seemed like a simple solution for expanding the credit profile of many first-time homebuyers, but Fannie Mae’s new plan to utilize rent payment history to that end will not immediately remedy the situation. Linda Goodman and Jun Zhu, in a new post on the Urban Institute’s (UI’s) Urban Wire blog, say […]

August 19, 2021

Jann Swanson

Builders Pull Back on Housing Starts

Posted To: MND NewsWireIt seemed like a simple solution for expanding the credit profile of many first-time homebuyers, but Fannie Mae’s new plan to utilize rent payment history to that end will not immediately remedy the situation. Linda Goodman and Jun Zhu, in a new post on the Urban Institute’s (UI’s) Urban Wire blog, say […]

August 19, 2021

Jann Swanson

MBS RECAP: Bonds Finally Have a Boring Day

Posted To: MBS CommentaryBonds Finally Have a Boring Day 10yr yields traded in a range of less than 3bps during the domestic session today. From 10:30am on, that range narrowed to only 1bp. We haven’t had a day like this in a while–3+ weeks at the very least. When things are flat and boring, there’s […]

August 19, 2021

Matthew Graham

Mortgage Rates Near 2-Week Lows

Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates were slightly lower today as the bond market improved for the 2nd straight day. When bonds prices move higher, bond yields (or rates) move lower, all other things being equal. In the current case, bonds were generally cautious heading into yesterday’s reading of the minutes from the most recent […]

August 19, 2021

Matthew Graham

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