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  • Mortgage Rates Rapidly Recover This Week's Losses February 23, 2024
    One of the upsides of these weeks with boring, sideways movement in the rate market is that it doesn't take much of an improvement to undo several days of damage.  Today brought just such an improvement, and not for any compelling or interesting reasons either! The average lender began the day at lower levels--already close […]
  • Strong Friday For Bonds Helps Keep Sideways Vibes Intact February 23, 2024
    Strong Friday For Bonds Helps Keep Sideways Vibes Intact Friday ended up being surprisingly strong for the bond market with the best rally of the week in the long end of the yield curve.  European bonds were a key consideration early, but the quarterly rollover in Treasury futures probably added some emphasis to the gains.  […]
  • Without Any Domestic Data on Tap, Bonds Taking Cues From Europe February 23, 2024
    It was destined to be a mostly boring, sideways week (to whatever extent "destiny" actually has any predictive value).  Perhaps it's more fair to say that "boring and sideways" is the least surprising outcome in light of the incredibly sparse event calendar.  European data and policy speeches have been in far greater supply, generally hurting […]
  • Hedging, Guideline Search, VOI and VOE Tools; Rocket Earnings; Events and Training February 23, 2024
    “Alexa, where’s my damn package?” (Page down 3-4 times to the video.) Life is full of surprises, good and bad. Rates aren’t a surprise… The U.S. Federal Reserve can only do so much about inflation. Geo-politics are a big deal, of course, and there is nothing our Fed, tasked with maintaining economic stability in this […]
  • The Drift Continues February 22, 2024
    The Drift Continues Bonds only had a small reaction to the stronger Jobless Claims data, despite the reference period being the same as the next NFP number.  Traders were more interested in the lower price pressures reported in the S&P PMI data.  This suggests a certain level of receptiveness to some of the other 2nd […]
  • Mortgage Rates Just Slightly Higher February 22, 2024
    Mortgage rates continue making nearly microscopic movements in day-over-day terms, but they continue adding up.  Today's increase over yesterday was negligible, but yesterday matched the highest levels in more than 2 months.  That leaves today with the dubious distinction of being the new multi-month high, even though many borrowers may not see meaningful changes in […]
  • Green Shoots For Existing Homes Ahead of Spring Market February 22, 2024
    Prospects for the spring market look a bit brighter as January numbers show an increase in both the pace of existing home sales and the size of the unsold inventory. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said sales of pre-owned single-family houses, townhomes, condominiums, and cooperative apartments were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of […]
  • Some Help From Data, But Nothing Heroic February 22, 2024
    Rates are "data dependent" and the two biggest pieces of economic data are CPI and the big jobs report.  Neither are on today's calendar, but there was an anecdotal indicator for the jobs report in the form of weekly jobless claims.  This usually forgettable, but if there was one week of the month to pay […]
  • LOS, Warehouse, Servicing Products; Freddie Mac and Trended Credit Data; STRATMOR on Younger Borrowers February 22, 2024
    Did someone say, “National Margarita Day”? (Splendid timing, especially as vendors and lenders contemplate a rate and volume environment that may not change much for months, and compensation & personnel adjustments continue.) In 2023, the United States was the leading recipient of Mexico’s tequila exports, importing 84.8 million gallons of tequila from South of the […]
  • Rates Testing Ceilings After Bond Auction and European Weakness February 21, 2024
    Rates Testing Ceilings After Bond Auction and European Weakness Bonds managed to start the day in modestly stronger territory, but it's just as fair to say "sideways."  Things didn't start moving until after 10am when European bond market weakness spilled over to Treasuries.  Yields drifted several bps higher into the 20yr bond auction and popped […]
Mortgage Rates Start Higher, But Improve in The Afternoon

Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates are only adjusted once per day by default. From there, the underlying bond market would need to improve or deteriorate by a certain amount for the average lender to go to the trouble of a mid-day reprice. A small handful of lenders did that last Friday (bonds were deteriorating), […]

August 23, 2021

Matthew Graham

MBS RECAP: Treasuries Slide Sideways as MBS Outperform

Posted To: MBS CommentaryTreasuries Slide Sideways as MBS Outperform The most notable development today was the outperformance on the part of MBS. The most obvious culprit would be the looming Treasury auction cycle logically causing more anxiety for Treasuries. There’s also the distinct steepening of the yield curve, which tends to favor MBS when it’s […]

August 23, 2021

Matthew Graham

Existing Home Sales Back on the Rise as Inventories Improve

Posted To: MND NewsWireExisting homes sales posted the second consecutive increase in July after breaking out of a slump in June that had endured for four months. The National Association of Realtors®, (NAR) said sales of pre-owned single-family houses, town houses, condominiums, and cooperative apartments rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.99 million […]

August 23, 2021

Jann Swanson

MBS Week Ahead: What is Jackson Hole (And What it Isn’t)

Posted To: MBS CommentaryThe Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium has often served as a venue for the Fed Chair to offer a sneak preview of impending policy changes or simply to provide a more candid assessment of how the Fed may react to potential changes in employment and inflation heading into the new year. While […]

August 23, 2021

Matthew Graham

Ops, MLO jobs; Whole Loan Sales, Jumbo, QC, Home Buying Education Products; Freddie and Fannie Changes

Posted To: Pipeline PressFires in California, floods in Tennessee, hurricanes in New York, COVID hospitalizations seemingly everywhere written up by the press. The “fun” never ends. Here in Orange County, at the California MBA’s Western Secondary, the talk in the hallways is focused not so much on huge shifts, because it looks like Freddie, Fannie, […]

August 23, 2021

Rob Chrisman

Rates Stuck in The Middle

Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchRates are on hold until the next chapter is written in the complex saga of covid versus the market. This isn’t to say rates perfectly flat–simply that the prevailing momentum has been sideways for the past few weeks. Since mortgage rates only change once or twice a day, we can use […]

August 20, 2021

Matthew Graham

MBS RECAP: Moderate Weakness For Uneventful Reasons

Posted To: MBS CommentaryModerate Weakness For Uneventful Reasons Bonds lost some ground today with 10yr yields up roughly 2bps heading into the 3pm CME close and 2.0 MBS down an eighth of a point. Viewed holistically, the week was very calm and yields ended right in the middle of the range (1.22-1.30% in the narrowest […]

August 20, 2021

Matthew Graham

Fannie Mae Says COVID-19 Surge Won’t Impact Growth. Probably.

Posted To: MND NewsWireFannie Mae’s economists provided a mixed forecast this month. The baseline view of the company’s Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) group is for the recent virus surge to drag modestly on consumers’ services consumption in the near term and modestly worsen supply chain disruptions abroad, but they don’t think it will prevent […]

August 20, 2021

Jann Swanson

Although Dwindling, Serious Delinquencies Still a Concern

Posted To: MND NewsWireThe federal foreclosure moratoria expired at the end of July and, with some 1.45 million borrowers seriously delinquent on their mortgages but not in foreclosure, Black Knight says, “potential foreclosure activity in the coming months warrants close observation.” The majority of those seriously delinquent mortgages, however, are still in active forbearance plans. […]

August 20, 2021

Jann Swanson

Sales Mgt., MLO Jobs; HELOC, Warehouse, Blockchain, Licensing Tools; News on Jumbo and Non-QM Products

Posted To: Pipeline PressWho wants to work on a Friday in summer? Not me! I was pleased to find the Type The Alphabet Game , which times you on how fast you type the alphabet. Fun, and doesn’t take much time. For something different, and some of you may need a tissue when reading it, […]

August 20, 2021

Rob Chrisman

MBS Day Ahead: Random Volatility Risks As Traders Tune Out

Posted To: MBS CommentaryIt’s a good time to revisit the primer on illiquidity unless the term is 2nd nature for you ( here it is ). Illiquidity is definitely a factor today as traders have undoubtedly targeted it as a perfect candidate for a 3-5 day weekend due to the absence of any relevant events […]

August 20, 2021

Matthew Graham

Fannie’s New Rental History Credit Boost Not as Simple as it Sound

Posted To: MND NewsWireIt seemed like a simple solution for expanding the credit profile of many first-time homebuyers, but Fannie Mae’s new plan to utilize rent payment history to that end will not immediately remedy the situation. Linda Goodman and Jun Zhu, in a new post on the Urban Institute’s (UI’s) Urban Wire blog, say […]

August 19, 2021

Jann Swanson

Builders Pull Back on Housing Starts

Posted To: MND NewsWireIt seemed like a simple solution for expanding the credit profile of many first-time homebuyers, but Fannie Mae’s new plan to utilize rent payment history to that end will not immediately remedy the situation. Linda Goodman and Jun Zhu, in a new post on the Urban Institute’s (UI’s) Urban Wire blog, say […]

August 19, 2021

Jann Swanson

MBS RECAP: Bonds Finally Have a Boring Day

Posted To: MBS CommentaryBonds Finally Have a Boring Day 10yr yields traded in a range of less than 3bps during the domestic session today. From 10:30am on, that range narrowed to only 1bp. We haven’t had a day like this in a while–3+ weeks at the very least. When things are flat and boring, there’s […]

August 19, 2021

Matthew Graham

Mortgage Rates Near 2-Week Lows

Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates were slightly lower today as the bond market improved for the 2nd straight day. When bonds prices move higher, bond yields (or rates) move lower, all other things being equal. In the current case, bonds were generally cautious heading into yesterday’s reading of the minutes from the most recent […]

August 19, 2021

Matthew Graham

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