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  • Fed May Not Be Hiking Until March, But Higher Rates Are Here Today January 15, 2022
    In the past 2 weeks, press coverage of the Federal Reserve's policy outlook has ramped up significantly. The Fed is now expected to start hiking rates in March and to hike more than previously expected in 2022. If you think that gives you time to get a mortgage before rates go up, think again. While […]
  • MBS Live Recap: Friday's Sell-Off Makes Rest Of The Week Look Like a Trap January 14, 2022
    Friday's Sell-Off Makes Rest Of The Week Look Like a Trap Over the past 2 days, we've pondered the fate of this week's sideways-to-slightly-stronger trend in the bond market.  Would it be the start of a correction that took yields even lower or merely a consolidation that allowed bonds to catch their breath before more […]
  • MBS Live Morning: Bonds Hitting Resistance Despite Weaker Econ Data; MBS Underperforming In General January 14, 2022
    Friday is not shaping up to be a great day for the mortgage bond market.  Our benchmark guidance giver of choice (10yr yield) is in the midst of a potential technical bounce at 1.70% after breaking into the 1.69's after hours yesterday.  Yields quickly corrected overnight and have now bounced HARD at 1.70+ this morning […]
  • Pandemic Foreclosure Tsunami Not on the Horizon January 14, 2022
    ATTOM says that foreclosure activity in the year just ended was at the lowest level since the company began tracking it in 2005. Foreclosure filings, including default notices, scheduled auctions, and bank repossessions or completed foreclosures, were made on 151,153 U.S. properties during the year, 29 percent fewer than in 2020 and down 95 percent […]
  • Processing, Dashboard, CHLA Priorities; Comp Study; The Changing Face of the Fed January 14, 2022
    It’s Friday, things have slowed down a little bit, and I appreciate you taking a break from Wordle to check out today’s Commentary. Here’s a riddle: What’s bad when it is down, just right when it’s a little, and bad when it is too much? Answer: inflation. Inflation is really getting out of hand… That’s […]
  • MBS Live Recap: Just Enough of a Rally to Keep Things Interesting January 13, 2022
    Just Enough of a Rally to Keep Things Interesting Coming into the day, we were pondering the fate of this week's friendly little correction.  Rates had done a good job of pushing back against last week's spike, but was that destined to be an example of a 3-4 day push that ends with the resumption […]
  • Mortgage Rates Move Up Despite Bond Market Gains January 13, 2022
    In almost every case, a day of bond market improvement results in rates moving lower.  That makes sense considering mortgage rates are based primarily on bonds.  But there are days when the correlation breaks down.  Today is one of them! These periodic breakdowns can happen for several reasons.  The most common is due to the […]
  • TPO, Fraud, LOS, Vendor Mgt. Tools; Housing and Inflation; Stearns' Business Shut Down January 13, 2022
    2022 is already off to an “interesting” start. Going directly to the borrower , normally the role of brokers, lenders, MI companies, and other mortgage education sources, Fannie Mae announced that it has launched HomeView™, the company’s new free online homeownership education course, “to help consumers navigate the mortgage and homebuying process confidently and responsibly.” […]
  • MBS Live Morning: Has The Correction Leveled Off For Now? January 13, 2022
    Whether we refer to it as a correction or consolidation, bonds have enjoyed a few days of moderate gains after selling off abruptly last week.  Today's trading will go a long way toward solidifying the definition of this move.  This risk is that it has been more of a consolidation with bonds merely catching their […]
  • MBS Live Recap: Mixed Signals in Data, Events, and The Market Reaction. January 12, 2022
    Mixed Signals in Data, Events, and The Market Reaction. The hotly anticipated CPI data came in roughly in line with expectations.  Bonds and stocks both rallied initially but then asked themselves why they would rally considering the Fed wouldn't be any less aggressive in normalizing policy based on this report.  The afternoon's 10yr auction provided […]
Mortgage Rates Start Higher, But Improve in The Afternoon

Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates are only adjusted once per day by default. From there, the underlying bond market would need to improve or deteriorate by a certain amount for the average lender to go to the trouble of a mid-day reprice. A small handful of lenders did that last Friday (bonds were deteriorating), […]

August 23, 2021

Matthew Graham

MBS RECAP: Treasuries Slide Sideways as MBS Outperform

Posted To: MBS CommentaryTreasuries Slide Sideways as MBS Outperform The most notable development today was the outperformance on the part of MBS. The most obvious culprit would be the looming Treasury auction cycle logically causing more anxiety for Treasuries. There’s also the distinct steepening of the yield curve, which tends to favor MBS when it’s […]

August 23, 2021

Matthew Graham

Existing Home Sales Back on the Rise as Inventories Improve

Posted To: MND NewsWireExisting homes sales posted the second consecutive increase in July after breaking out of a slump in June that had endured for four months. The National Association of Realtors®, (NAR) said sales of pre-owned single-family houses, town houses, condominiums, and cooperative apartments rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.99 million […]

August 23, 2021

Jann Swanson

MBS Week Ahead: What is Jackson Hole (And What it Isn’t)

Posted To: MBS CommentaryThe Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium has often served as a venue for the Fed Chair to offer a sneak preview of impending policy changes or simply to provide a more candid assessment of how the Fed may react to potential changes in employment and inflation heading into the new year. While […]

August 23, 2021

Matthew Graham

Ops, MLO jobs; Whole Loan Sales, Jumbo, QC, Home Buying Education Products; Freddie and Fannie Changes

Posted To: Pipeline PressFires in California, floods in Tennessee, hurricanes in New York, COVID hospitalizations seemingly everywhere written up by the press. The “fun” never ends. Here in Orange County, at the California MBA’s Western Secondary, the talk in the hallways is focused not so much on huge shifts, because it looks like Freddie, Fannie, […]

August 23, 2021

Rob Chrisman

Rates Stuck in The Middle

Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchRates are on hold until the next chapter is written in the complex saga of covid versus the market. This isn’t to say rates perfectly flat–simply that the prevailing momentum has been sideways for the past few weeks. Since mortgage rates only change once or twice a day, we can use […]

August 20, 2021

Matthew Graham

MBS RECAP: Moderate Weakness For Uneventful Reasons

Posted To: MBS CommentaryModerate Weakness For Uneventful Reasons Bonds lost some ground today with 10yr yields up roughly 2bps heading into the 3pm CME close and 2.0 MBS down an eighth of a point. Viewed holistically, the week was very calm and yields ended right in the middle of the range (1.22-1.30% in the narrowest […]

August 20, 2021

Matthew Graham

Fannie Mae Says COVID-19 Surge Won’t Impact Growth. Probably.

Posted To: MND NewsWireFannie Mae’s economists provided a mixed forecast this month. The baseline view of the company’s Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) group is for the recent virus surge to drag modestly on consumers’ services consumption in the near term and modestly worsen supply chain disruptions abroad, but they don’t think it will prevent […]

August 20, 2021

Jann Swanson

Although Dwindling, Serious Delinquencies Still a Concern

Posted To: MND NewsWireThe federal foreclosure moratoria expired at the end of July and, with some 1.45 million borrowers seriously delinquent on their mortgages but not in foreclosure, Black Knight says, “potential foreclosure activity in the coming months warrants close observation.” The majority of those seriously delinquent mortgages, however, are still in active forbearance plans. […]

August 20, 2021

Jann Swanson

Sales Mgt., MLO Jobs; HELOC, Warehouse, Blockchain, Licensing Tools; News on Jumbo and Non-QM Products

Posted To: Pipeline PressWho wants to work on a Friday in summer? Not me! I was pleased to find the Type The Alphabet Game , which times you on how fast you type the alphabet. Fun, and doesn’t take much time. For something different, and some of you may need a tissue when reading it, […]

August 20, 2021

Rob Chrisman

MBS Day Ahead: Random Volatility Risks As Traders Tune Out

Posted To: MBS CommentaryIt’s a good time to revisit the primer on illiquidity unless the term is 2nd nature for you ( here it is ). Illiquidity is definitely a factor today as traders have undoubtedly targeted it as a perfect candidate for a 3-5 day weekend due to the absence of any relevant events […]

August 20, 2021

Matthew Graham

Fannie’s New Rental History Credit Boost Not as Simple as it Sound

Posted To: MND NewsWireIt seemed like a simple solution for expanding the credit profile of many first-time homebuyers, but Fannie Mae’s new plan to utilize rent payment history to that end will not immediately remedy the situation. Linda Goodman and Jun Zhu, in a new post on the Urban Institute’s (UI’s) Urban Wire blog, say […]

August 19, 2021

Jann Swanson

Builders Pull Back on Housing Starts

Posted To: MND NewsWireIt seemed like a simple solution for expanding the credit profile of many first-time homebuyers, but Fannie Mae’s new plan to utilize rent payment history to that end will not immediately remedy the situation. Linda Goodman and Jun Zhu, in a new post on the Urban Institute’s (UI’s) Urban Wire blog, say […]

August 19, 2021

Jann Swanson

MBS RECAP: Bonds Finally Have a Boring Day

Posted To: MBS CommentaryBonds Finally Have a Boring Day 10yr yields traded in a range of less than 3bps during the domestic session today. From 10:30am on, that range narrowed to only 1bp. We haven’t had a day like this in a while–3+ weeks at the very least. When things are flat and boring, there’s […]

August 19, 2021

Matthew Graham

Mortgage Rates Near 2-Week Lows

Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates were slightly lower today as the bond market improved for the 2nd straight day. When bonds prices move higher, bond yields (or rates) move lower, all other things being equal. In the current case, bonds were generally cautious heading into yesterday’s reading of the minutes from the most recent […]

August 19, 2021

Matthew Graham

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